Signals

A signal is a cluster whose game count and aggregate CCU are both accelerating across the last pulls — the earliest read that a subject, mechanic, format, or meme is filling up. CCU is a lagging tell, so each signal also carries the leading one: Fᵥ, the favorites gained per visit — early players bookmarking before the return traffic shows up as CCU. Breadth (effective games the players are spread across) says whether it is a lane you can enter or a single hit.

What is going up

Every accelerating cluster, placed by momentum (CCU added per day, up) against breadth (how many games carry it, right). The top-right is the prize — heating up and spread across real games. A dot high but far left is one game blowing up. A blue ring marks an early trend (Fᵥ leading before CCU); a amber ring marks bot-divergence — CCU climbing while favorites stay flat.

Dot size is how fast games are being added (games/day). Hover any dot for its numbers, its Fᵥ, and the opportunity read.

Act on these first

Signals both spread across more than a couple of games and bookmarking early — ranked by Fᵥ, the leading signal, not by CCU. Each row carries its caution flag, so a bot-inflated or sponsored spike can't pass as organic demand.

Fᵥ is favorites gained per visit across the window — the earliest tell a lane is forming. A flat Fᵥ under a rising CCU is what trips the bot? flag.
The rule a cluster must clear to flag

A cluster is flagged only when all of these hold:

  • It has at least 3 pulls of history (min_pulls).
  • Its trailing window rises every step — each pull's game count is ≥ the previous, and each pull's aggregate CCU is ≥ the previous (a lone spike between flat pulls does not qualify).
  • The least-squares slope of both game count and CCU against time clears a floor (≥ 1 game/day, ≥ 200 CCU/day — provisional, tuned once real history accumulates).

The leading indicators (Fᵥ, session length, like ratio, sponsored share) and the caution flags are descriptive — they annotate a flagged cluster, they do not change the rule above. The axis carrying the signal is the answer to "new subject or new mechanic": if games sharing a subject accelerate while no single mechanic or format cluster does, only a subject signal fires.

Every signal

Context — the clusters a trend must out-climb

The largest clusters by CCU today. A forming signal is measured against these incumbents. Each sparkline holds one point per pull, becoming a trend line as pulls land.